Saiful Islam Azad :
The world has been experiencing gradual increase of temperature for last few decades. A renowned Indian daily on May 19, 2016 reported that Rajasthan’s Phalodi sizzled at 51 degree Celsius, while Ahmedabad broke 100-yr record. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned that the heat wave would be at its severest in the next couple of days, raising the alert level to the highest “red”. The scale of the catastrophe is terrible as two straight years of monsoon failure have pushed 40% of the country’s total area under drought– 256 districts of 10 states, home to 33 crore people or 25% India’s population. Bangladesh also experienced severe heat waves in May, this year.
This is a tiny example of global warming which I stated above. Global warming is the term used to describe a gradual increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere and its oceans, a change that is believed to be permanently changing the Earth’s climate. Global warming could make the planet far hotter than currently projected. The climate scientists look ahead to how much the planet’s surface temperature may warm up in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide-they typically predict a rise of between 2.1 degree Celsius (for lowest emission) and 4.7 degree Celsius (for highest emission). The scientists are 90% certain that global warming is mostly being caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and other human activities. It was reported in 2014 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). And also these findings have been recognized without any dispute by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations.
Among the major greenhouse gases carbon dioxide is the main criminal behind global warming and fossil fuels are the major sources of this gas. The NASA Scientists reported on November 12, 2015 that carbon dioxide continues to increase above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years: currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels is not absorbed by vegetation and the oceans and remains in the atmosphere. Thus, the climate system is warming.
Again, its concentration in the atmosphere would range between 541 and 970 ppm by the year 2100, as fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century. The sea level rise since 1993 has been estimated to have been on average 2.6 mm. But sea level rise has accelerated from 1995 to 2015. It seems that we the people of this world are cutting our own legs with our axes. The rich countries are not agreed to lessen the carbon emissions. But they had contributed most to the cumulating of GHGs in the atmosphere.
The world is already trapped in severe global warming. Now it has been experiencing multiple natural calamities like droughts, heat waves, rising sea levels, coastal floods, tidal surges, changing rain or snow falls, expansion of desert, cyclones and other disasters. The significant effects of global warming to humans are threat to food security from decreasing crop yields due to shifts in global climate and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels. Thus the climate-induced migrants would increase enormously, estimated more than one billion, in the climate vulnerable countries like Bangladesh, India, Philippines, China, Maldives etc. Again severe droughts would turn the green lands into deserts. It would destroy the ecological balance worldwide. So, it would not be exaggerated to say that the whole world is now exposed to disasters.
A recent UN environment report echoed the above matters and warns the countries of the Pacific and South and Southeast Asia that the worst impacts of climate change are projected to occur in these areas due to rapid urbanization and economic growth. It predicted that the low-lying coastal areas of India, Bangladesh, China, Philippines and some Pacific countries would be exposed to coastal flooding in 2050 to 2070. India tops the chart with nearly 40 million people in the country projected to be at risk from rising sea levels, followed by more than 25 million in Bangladesh, over 20 million in China and nearly 15 million in the Philippines. More than one billion people of these climate vulnerable countries are going to be climate-induced migrants in the near future, as the sea level rising is expected to threaten the vital infrastructure and human settlements.
It’s dreadful news for our country and the above-mentioned countries as well. Bangladesh has been repeatedly facing different devastating cyclones with high tidal wave that inundate the coastal areas leaving death of hundreds of people. Most recently a strong cyclone ‘Roanu’ wreaked massive havoc in eight coastal districts and took minimum 25 lives. Thousands of houses were demolished and roads, culverts as well as embankments collapsed under the pressure of tidal surge. What would be the fate of more than one billion people who are going to be climate-induced migrants?
Some world bodies have been fighting for long days relentlessly in favour of the climate-induced migrants, the innocent victims of global warming caused by rich countries, deserving equity, capacity and human rights. UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) is such a Convention of the most countries of the world.
UNFCCC, the Framework Convention, was agreed in 1992. But since then, global emissions have risen. In 2009 the Convention produced the Copenhagen Accord and also produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C. This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention, which entered into legal effect in 2005. In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expired in 2012. The United States President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that “it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy.
Later, a lobbying group called G77 in the United Nations representing 133 developing nations pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to “[take] the lead” in reducing their emissions. This was justified on the basis that: the developed world’s emissions had contributed most to the cumulating of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emission (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris assumed that 55 developed countries together represent at least 55 per cent of global greenhouse emissions.
The 2015 United Nations Climate Conference, COP 21 or CMP 11 was held with a view to reaching a global agreement on the reduction of climate change by limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. According to the organizing committee of the summit in Paris, the objective of the 2015 conference was to achieve, for the first time in over 20 years of UN negotiations, a binding and universal agreement on climate, from all the nations of the world. However, no detailed timetable or country-specific goals for emissions were incorporated into the Paris Agreement. On 12 December 2015, the participating 195 countries agreed, by consensus, to the final global pact, the Paris Agreement, to reduce emissions as part of the method for reducing greenhouse gas. In the 12-page document, the members agreed to reduce their carbon output as soon as possible and to do their best to keep global warming to well below 2 degrees C.
The agreement will become legally binding if joined by at least 55 countries which together represent at least 55 percent of global greenhouse emissions. Think-tanks argued that the keys to success lay in convincing officials in the U.S. and China, by far the two largest national emitters: “As long as policy makers in Washington and Beijing didn’t put all their political capital behind the adoption of ambitious carbon-emission capping targets, the laudable efforts of other G20 governments often remained in the realm of pious wishes.” Things changed for the better on 12 November 2014 when President Obama and General Secretary Xi Jinping agreed to limit greenhouse gases emissions.
There has been contentious wrangling between wealthy and developing nations for two decades on the global warming issues. Negotiators from 196 countries worked along three parallel tracks to put flesh on the bone of the Paris agreement. A 10-day session on UN climate talks ended in German city of Bonn on May, 2016 focused mainly on elaborating this year a “Rule Book” for implementation and laying the groundwork for a high-level meeting in November in Marrakesh, Morocco. It has been a very constructive session. A new willingness was seen to work collectively. The accord which is expected to enter into force later this year-sets ambitious goals for capping global warming and funneling trillions of dollars to the poor and climate vulnerable countries facing an onslaught of climate change.
But there is a concern. Each country that ratifies the agreement will be required to set a target for emission reduction, but the amount will be voluntary.
There will be neither a mechanism, nor enforcement measures to force a country to set a target by a specific date if a set target is not met. The UN Assistant Secretary General on Climate Change told it a ‘name and encourage’ plan.
We the people of the climate vulnerable countries are eagerly looking for a fruitful agreement among the member countries of United Nations to keep global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and a big budget to defend the calamities due to climate damage.
