Bangladesh has to worry about refugee influx once again, as the face-off between the Myanmar’s military and the National Unity Government and its allies could result in a civil war. Fighters of NUG may also attempt to take shelter in Bangladesh if Myanmar slips into a full-blown social conflict, say security and international relations experts.
According to them, Myanmar’s military, which has the history of killing civilians notoriously, will do its worst to survive. The military also has the support of big powers like China and Russia, while the western powers have not cut off relations with the Myanmar military as they have economic interests, even though they want the restoration of democracy. The ASEAN, Japan, Singapore and India all are still soft on the Myanmar military.
Experts claimed that European Union (EU) nations are maintaining a double standard on the Rohingya crisis, despite making commitments and pressing a strong stance on human rights. Expressing dissatisfaction they said the EU are completely silent over atrocities in Palestine as well as the Rohingya situation in Bangladesh.
The present crisis in Myanmar began following the February 1 military coup that overthrew the elected parliament members of the National League for Democracy (NLD), including its leader Aung San Suu Kyi. So far, crackdowns on demonstrators have left more than 850 dead. In mid-April, the elected NLD MPs, representatives from different ethnic minority groups and independent MPs, formed the NUG with Win Myint as the president and Aung San Suu Kyi as the State Counsellor. The shadow government is seeking international recognition but it is yet to gain any noteworthy support. The western powers may eventually support it. NUG, has formed an armed wing named “People’s Defense Force” (PDF) to launch revolution against the junta.
Bangladesh needs to have its strategies ready considering different scenarios, as we cannot afford to be caught off guard like in 2017, when an influx of 750,000 Rohingya refugees took place. The refugees came to Bangladesh to avoid military persecution in the Rakhine State. The prospect of Rohingya repatriation, which remains hanging for about four years since the military crackdown has become slimmer as the internal security situation in Myanmar has worsened. We fear ethnic minorities, who will be the main targets this time of the Myanmar military, may cross the border into Bangladesh.
Unless the international community puts pressure on Myanmar in one voice, there is little chance of any solution to the Rohingya problem.
