Reuters, Berlin :
Late last month, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s top foreign policy adviser was asked what a Donald Trump presidency would mean for Germany and offered a rather hopeful assessment.
The realities of the presidency would force Trump to change his tone, Christoph Heusgen told an audience in Berlin. Trump had German roots. And he was considering former critics such as Mitt Romney, a more centrist Republican, for top cabinet posts in a sign that he would be inclusive.
“This is reassuring,” Heusgen said.
Two weeks later, the hopes in major European capitals that Trump would shift into “presidential mode”, distance himself from the controversial stances of his campaign and bring a diverse group of outsiders into his administration are fading and a new anxiety is taking hold.
Government officials say recent decisions – from the appointment of a climate change sceptic to run the Environmental Protection Agency, to Trump’s clash with China over Taiwan and his appointment of several Goldman Sachs bankers to top positions – suggest he could be far more disruptive to European interests than initially assumed.
And so, after the shock of the U.S. election and a period of wishful reflection on how Trump might change, a shaken Europe is bracing for confrontations with Washington on a range of issues, from Russia and the Iran nuclear deal, to free trade, climate change and even European integration.
“It is becoming clearer by the day that this is not going to be about an evolving set of consistent policies but rather the opposite,” said a senior western European diplomat, who visited Washington recently to assess the mood.
“It is all about being disruptive. No one knows where and how he will choose to be disruptive. But we are coming around to the view that this is who Trump is, and that it’s part of his strategy.”
A little over a month since the U.S. vote, European officials are still struggling to understand exactly what Trump will do when he enters the White House next month, beyond the expectation that he focuses chiefly on domestic priorities.
The confusion is partly because filling out Trump’s cabinet has become such a drawn-out process, with candidates such as Romney being paraded into the president-elect’s New York base at Trump Tower and praised by him on Twitter, only to be jettisoned or forgotten days later as new contenders emerge.
The most important appointment for many foreign capitals was finalised on Tuesday, with the CEO of oil giant Exxon, Rex Tillerson, named secretary of state over pretenders like Romney, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and retired general David Petraeus.
Tillerson elicited a range of reactions, with some European officials expressing concerns about his close ties to Russia and President Vladimir Putin, and others reassured that the head of a major corporation with international experience would become America’s top diplomat.
“Optically, it’s not good at all,” said a senior eastern European diplomat whose country looks to the United States and NATO to protect it from Moscow’s regional ambitions. “But the thought of a U.S. secretary of state who actually knows Russia is intriguing.”
Trump’s overtures towards Russia have deeply worried Merkel’s entourage. The German chancellor has led the European Union’s tough response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its role in eastern Ukraine, moving in lockstep with President Barack Obama in punishing Moscow with international sanctions.
Late last month, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s top foreign policy adviser was asked what a Donald Trump presidency would mean for Germany and offered a rather hopeful assessment.
The realities of the presidency would force Trump to change his tone, Christoph Heusgen told an audience in Berlin. Trump had German roots. And he was considering former critics such as Mitt Romney, a more centrist Republican, for top cabinet posts in a sign that he would be inclusive.
“This is reassuring,” Heusgen said.
Two weeks later, the hopes in major European capitals that Trump would shift into “presidential mode”, distance himself from the controversial stances of his campaign and bring a diverse group of outsiders into his administration are fading and a new anxiety is taking hold.
Government officials say recent decisions – from the appointment of a climate change sceptic to run the Environmental Protection Agency, to Trump’s clash with China over Taiwan and his appointment of several Goldman Sachs bankers to top positions – suggest he could be far more disruptive to European interests than initially assumed.
And so, after the shock of the U.S. election and a period of wishful reflection on how Trump might change, a shaken Europe is bracing for confrontations with Washington on a range of issues, from Russia and the Iran nuclear deal, to free trade, climate change and even European integration.
“It is becoming clearer by the day that this is not going to be about an evolving set of consistent policies but rather the opposite,” said a senior western European diplomat, who visited Washington recently to assess the mood.
“It is all about being disruptive. No one knows where and how he will choose to be disruptive. But we are coming around to the view that this is who Trump is, and that it’s part of his strategy.”
A little over a month since the U.S. vote, European officials are still struggling to understand exactly what Trump will do when he enters the White House next month, beyond the expectation that he focuses chiefly on domestic priorities.
The confusion is partly because filling out Trump’s cabinet has become such a drawn-out process, with candidates such as Romney being paraded into the president-elect’s New York base at Trump Tower and praised by him on Twitter, only to be jettisoned or forgotten days later as new contenders emerge.
The most important appointment for many foreign capitals was finalised on Tuesday, with the CEO of oil giant Exxon, Rex Tillerson, named secretary of state over pretenders like Romney, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and retired general David Petraeus.
Tillerson elicited a range of reactions, with some European officials expressing concerns about his close ties to Russia and President Vladimir Putin, and others reassured that the head of a major corporation with international experience would become America’s top diplomat.
“Optically, it’s not good at all,” said a senior eastern European diplomat whose country looks to the United States and NATO to protect it from Moscow’s regional ambitions. “But the thought of a U.S. secretary of state who actually knows Russia is intriguing.”
Trump’s overtures towards Russia have deeply worried Merkel’s entourage. The German chancellor has led the European Union’s tough response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its role in eastern Ukraine, moving in lockstep with President Barack Obama in punishing Moscow with international sanctions.
