Saleh Akram :
Noticeably visible changes are occurring in today’s world. Asia is also changing and its potentials are being closely monitored by the western supremos. According to many, US dominance in every sphere of the present unipolar world, is being replaced by increasing influence of other powers. America could foresee Asia’s emergence as a future political and economic power which prompted President Obama to launch a new initiative entitled ‘rebalancing Asia’ in 2012. The world has also watched and is still watching how a single election triggered overnight attitudal change in three continents. With the ascension to power by BJP, not only global politics of India is likely to change, interestingly rest of the world is also visibly supportive of the change. The honeymoon period of Modi’s government is not yet over and the new regime is yet to make any move that has semblance of a policy shift. Nevertheless, India’s neighbours and powers that have geopolitical interests in the region, have been running over each other in a bid to win India’s heart. The long Congress rule and its achievements were eclipsed by Modi’s sensational victory and the world got down to re-strategize relations with India.
In the backdrop of such a changing scenario, Bangladesh Prime Minister recently visited China and Japan in quick succession. Her visit was immediately followed by Bangladesh visit of Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen and the Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj. The latter’s visit in particular, is viewed by diplomatic circles as an event of immense significance in shaping future bilateral relations. PM’s visit to China and Japan has political significance, but the economic impact of the visit is expected to overshadow the political importance. A number of agreements have been signed during the visits including the one executed with a Chinese company for construction of Padma Bridge and the work will start soon.
China, Japan, India and ASEAN states are becoming increasingly important in world economy transcending the borders of Asia. USA has realized, it must have increased relationship with these countries and is working on formation of a trans-pacific partnership – an economic alliance with countries of the Pacific region. Surprisingly, China has been kept out of the alliance, although it is soon going to be world’s major economic power. Without China, economic progress of the pacific region is inconceivable. According to some, the target of the alliance is to encircle China from all sides.
Obviously, China’s reaction to such an alliance is not going to be favourable, if not totally hostile. While US is aiming at strengthening its relations with its old allies like Japan, South Korea, Singapore And Indonesia, it is also on the hunt for new allies in the region. US is interested to form a new alliance comprising Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Afghanistan etc. under the name and style of Southern Silk Road. In short, USA is working with a long-term objective in a view to bring many countries under one political and economic framework. Its primary intention is to preserve strategic interest, but economic interest behind the move cannot be ignored. It has also made clear that it won’t mind if China is interested to associate itself with the new economic agenda of the region. As part of the policy, US has also accepted China’s developing ties with Bangladesh. The populous country of the world has woke up from slumber and is about to occupy the top spot of world economy. USA, Japan and European Union have benefited from their relations with China. So also has China. But China remains at the current economic crisis in US and Europe and has concentrated on strengthening economic ties with Asian countries. Its attention is now focussed on India, South East Asia and South Asia.
Combined trade volume of India and China was worth US $ 75 billions in 2012, which is expected to reach 200 billions shortly. China is being immensely benefited from this trade because of its export of manufactured goods. Bangladesh is also its important trade partner. China’s internal obligations have also worked behind its growing interest for greater trade relations with different countries of the region including Bangladesh. Its progress so far centred round China Sea, more particularly along the east coast. But now it wants to expand its sphere of influence across the region.
This is being termed as its ‘look West’ policy. As part of its ‘West look’ initiative, relations with South Asia are being strengthened. As China is gaining in strength economically, labour cost in the country is rising pushing the production costs of its exportable items up. In order to stay alive in the world market in the face of growing labour cost, China will soon need to relocate many of its industries to areas that can provide labour at a cheaper price. Bangladesh could be a favourable choice in this respect because of its comparatively cheaper labour cost, and more importantly, it has already acquired the capacity to manufacture world class products.
India also has deep rooted interests in Bangladesh. It has a sizeable export to Bangladesh and it wants to further increase the same. On the political front, India received important support from the present government that helped her get rid of security concerns to a large extent.
Considering all these factors, Bangladesh is now better placed diplomatically than ever before and is now in a position to strike better deals both politically and economically with its immediate and close neighbours. As a country on the coast of Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh now bears far greater significance than ever before.
Economic issues dominated the talks between our Prime Minister and her Japanese counterpart during the former’s recent visit to Japan. But Japan has other interests. It is an aspirant for temporary membership of the UN, for which it contested but lost to Bangladesh in 1978. Japan is not prepared to take any undue risks this time. The present Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is believed to be a nationalist, has a declared policy of expanding his sphere of influence. So the commitment of US $ 6 billion in aid made by Japan during our PM’s visit to the country is not incidental. There is nothing wrong with a country’s effort to uphold its national interest while pursuing its development activities and since Bangladesh requires foreign loans and grants and investments in its national interest, we need to pay greater attention to the sources that can offer them. Bangladesh has received a commitment of aid worth over US $ 10 billions resulting from its PM’s visit which will have to be spent in 5 to 7 years. We should engage all our efforts to ensure the required political, administrative and technical capacity to accomplish that.
There are reasons to believe that the changed perspective has carried Bangladesh to a new height, at least diplomatically if not otherwise. As a country on the coast of Bay of Bengal, the gateway to Indian Ocean, the geo-political importance of Bangladesh has increased by a number of times. Our bargaining power has also been strengthened. All these are evident from the importance attached to Bangladesh by China and Japan. If we can make the best of the changed scenario, sunny days are definitely ahead of us and certainly no elaboration is required to qualify the statement.
(Saleh Akram writes on economy and geo-strategic issues. )
