Al Amin :
The country’s economy has resumed with uncertainty, as the country’s export and remittance inflow are likely to suffer due to the second wave of the ongoing pandemic, experts said.
Despite surge in export earning and remittance inflows in the first three months of the current fiscal year, they apprehend that there is an uncertainty over the continuation of the growth in coming days.
Besides, the production of the most of the manufacturers, which were closed due to the outbreak of the Covid-19, is yet to be refuelled fully and it will impact the economic growth, they added.
Despite resumption of economic activities, it is yet to be got pace properly like pre-Covid-19 period. Also the demand in the economy has shrunk, they said.
Following the adverse situation, the World Bank on Friday forecast that Bangladesh’s GDP growth will be 1.6 percent in FY2020-21.
Rejecting the forecast, Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal in a statement on Friday, however, said the World Bank’s projection is inconsistent with the current pace of the country’s economy.
Dr Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said, “The pandemic impacted the country’s economy and the livelihood of the people. Many have lost their jobs and have been unemployed. Many families have fallen into deep financial crisis.”
“So, the big challenge is now to get the country’s economy back to its pre-Covid-19 shape and the World Bank’s projection is realistic,” he said.
Dr Ahsan H Mansur, Executive Director of Policy Research Institute, told The New Nation, “The remittance inflows have increased over the past three months. This may be the result of repatriated savings.”
Remittances, however, are forecast to decline in FY21 with weaker demand from migrant-receiving countries such as the oil-producing Gulf states.
According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), 68 percent families in the country have fallen into deep financial crisis due to the ongoing pandemic.
The BBS data also said, at least 20 percent income of the families fell during this time and unemployment rate increased by 4 percent in the last September. The income of the families, in March was Tk19,425, coming down to Tk15,492 in August.
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is still lagging behind its revenue collection target, set for the first two months of FY 21. The board collected Tk 301.62 billion in July-August period against its target of Tk 409.47 billion, showing a shortfall of Tk 107.84 billion.
Only the Customs Wing achieved 4.55 per cent growth over the corresponding period as imports have been increased slightly.
Private and foreign investments are yet to be accelerated. There is also no excitement in the manufacturing sector.
“Besides, the country’s export destinations in Europe and America are likely to be struck due to the second wave of the ongoing pandemic. Demand will decrease in those countries. For all these reasons, there seems to be a U-shaped economic recovery, not V-shaped economic recovery that is being considered,” Dr Mustafizur Rahman said.
Private consumption growth is likely to remain subdued with depressed wage income and a decline in remittance inflows, while anemic private investment is projected due to heightened uncertainty, the WB projection said.
Investment and exports will suffer amid major uncertainty about the resumption of demand for ready-made garments. Demand in Europe and the United States is stabilising but the recovery is fragile, it added.
Digital technologies can play an essential role in creating new opportunities for informal workers, making South Asia more competitive and better integrated into markets — if countries improve digital access and support workers to take advantage of online platforms, the WB report suggested.
The country’s economy has resumed with uncertainty, as the country’s export and remittance inflow are likely to suffer due to the second wave of the ongoing pandemic, experts said.
Despite surge in export earning and remittance inflows in the first three months of the current fiscal year, they apprehend that there is an uncertainty over the continuation of the growth in coming days.
Besides, the production of the most of the manufacturers, which were closed due to the outbreak of the Covid-19, is yet to be refuelled fully and it will impact the economic growth, they added.
Despite resumption of economic activities, it is yet to be got pace properly like pre-Covid-19 period. Also the demand in the economy has shrunk, they said.
Following the adverse situation, the World Bank on Friday forecast that Bangladesh’s GDP growth will be 1.6 percent in FY2020-21.
Rejecting the forecast, Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal in a statement on Friday, however, said the World Bank’s projection is inconsistent with the current pace of the country’s economy.
Dr Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said, “The pandemic impacted the country’s economy and the livelihood of the people. Many have lost their jobs and have been unemployed. Many families have fallen into deep financial crisis.”
“So, the big challenge is now to get the country’s economy back to its pre-Covid-19 shape and the World Bank’s projection is realistic,” he said.
Dr Ahsan H Mansur, Executive Director of Policy Research Institute, told The New Nation, “The remittance inflows have increased over the past three months. This may be the result of repatriated savings.”
Remittances, however, are forecast to decline in FY21 with weaker demand from migrant-receiving countries such as the oil-producing Gulf states.
According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), 68 percent families in the country have fallen into deep financial crisis due to the ongoing pandemic.
The BBS data also said, at least 20 percent income of the families fell during this time and unemployment rate increased by 4 percent in the last September. The income of the families, in March was Tk19,425, coming down to Tk15,492 in August.
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is still lagging behind its revenue collection target, set for the first two months of FY 21. The board collected Tk 301.62 billion in July-August period against its target of Tk 409.47 billion, showing a shortfall of Tk 107.84 billion.
Only the Customs Wing achieved 4.55 per cent growth over the corresponding period as imports have been increased slightly.
Private and foreign investments are yet to be accelerated. There is also no excitement in the manufacturing sector.
“Besides, the country’s export destinations in Europe and America are likely to be struck due to the second wave of the ongoing pandemic. Demand will decrease in those countries. For all these reasons, there seems to be a U-shaped economic recovery, not V-shaped economic recovery that is being considered,” Dr Mustafizur Rahman said.
Private consumption growth is likely to remain subdued with depressed wage income and a decline in remittance inflows, while anemic private investment is projected due to heightened uncertainty, the WB projection said.
Investment and exports will suffer amid major uncertainty about the resumption of demand for ready-made garments. Demand in Europe and the United States is stabilising but the recovery is fragile, it added.
Digital technologies can play an essential role in creating new opportunities for informal workers, making South Asia more competitive and better integrated into markets — if countries improve digital access and support workers to take advantage of online platforms, the WB report suggested.
