Reza Mahmud :
Public health experts rejected Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS)’s predictions about coronavirus infections and death toll saying those are not realistic.
“The current rate of the infections are not reflecting the predictions which the DGHS prepared,” Professor Dr. M. Muzaherul Huq, the former Regional Advisor of World Health Organisation (WHO) told The New Nation on Wednesday.
He said that total number of infections with coronavirus in Bangladesh now stand at 7,103. The numbers of the detected cases were found nearly in last 53 days since the country confirmed its first coronavirus cases on March 8.
He said that a total of 4,968 samples were tested across the country in last 24 hours by Wednesday which is 14.68 percent more than the previous day and 641 people were found positive.
The data showed that on Tuesday, the number of tests was 4,332 with the detection of 549 patients, while the number of tests was 3,812 and 497 were found infected on Monday.
“This trend did not show that the predictions prepared by the DGHS are realistic,” Professor Dr. Muzaherul Huq said.
He, however, said if the government withdraws the lockdown without following the WHO’s six point criteria, the situation would be more drastic than the predictions.
When contacted, Professor Dr. ABM Abdullah, the Prime Minister’s personal physician also rejected the predications terming that those are based on imagination.
“A Singapore based organization has predicted that the virus spreading may end by May worldwide. I agree with the predictions,” Dr. ABM Abdullah, who was the Professor in the Department of Internal Medicine and dean of the Faculty of Medicine at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, told The New Nation.
I think the monsoon rain may wash out the virus within the end of May.
“No one should spread panic among the people. But the lockdown should maintain strictly to contain community transmission of the virus,” he said.
Meanwhile, Health Minister Zahid Malik has said Bangladesh can loose the lockdown over coronavirus outbreak since it has been going on for more than a month. He says factories can resume production on a limited scale by ‘fully adhering’ to physical distancing and other health safety rules to save the economy.
The minister was speaking about the situation while inspecting the temporary hospital for COVID-19 patients at the International Convention City Bashundhara on Wednesday.
“The US, Italy, France and many other European countries have relaxed lockdowns. New Zealand has even returned to ‘normal life’. We will also get normal life back soon if everything goes alright,” Zahid said.
The Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS) has placed two predictions, at a virtual inter-ministerial meeting on April 21, terming the first to be conservative where some 48,000-50,000 people may be infected and 800-1,000 of them might die by May 31.
The second prediction fears the worst where cases of infections may rise to around 100,000.
DGHS Director General Professor Dr Abul Kalam Azad unveiled the two predictions in the meeting. It was chaired by Health Minister Zahid Maleque and attended by ministers and high officials from concerned ministries.
Dr Kalam Azad also said the predictions on the coronavirus scenario in Bangladesh for the month of May were drafted by experts under the supervision of the DGHS.
According to a summary of the meeting, Dr Kalam said several factors, such as the present state of the lockdown, awareness, and social distancing measures, were considered while preparing the predictions.
“We are now preparing to ensure treatment for the estimated number of patients of the pandemic as per the predictions,” he told the meeting.
Despite several attempts, The New Nation could not reach DGHS DG Dr Abul Kalam Azad over the phone for further details on the two predictions.
On the other hand, Health Ministry’s Medical Education and Family Welfare Division Secretary Md Ali Noor said journalists, “The projection that some 48,000-50,000 people may be infected and 800-1,000 people may die by May 31, has been compiled based on the current trend of the outbreak in Bangladesh.
He said that the same time, the second projection regarding Bangladesh was formed as per the ongoing global trend considering reports by the World Health Organization (WHO).
