AP, Atlanta :
Republicans crowed in 2004 that freshly re-elected President George W. Bush had established a “permanent governing majority” for the GOP. Eight years later, Democrats were touting the enduring power of the “Obama coalition” to keep their party in the White House.
But Democrats couldn’t sustain that coalition for this year’s midterm elections, leading to Republican gains in Congress, governorships and state legislatures nationwide.
“The notion of demographics as destiny is overblown,” said Republican pollster and media strategist Wes Anderson. “Just like (Bush aide Karl) Rove was wrong with that ‘permanent majority’ talk, Democrats have to remember that the pendulum is always swinging.”
So how will it swing in 2016? Is the path to 270 electoral votes so fixed that one side just can’t win? Will President Barack Obama’s limited popularity be a burden for the Democratic nominee in the next race for the White House? Or will an increasingly diverse electorate pick a Democrat for a third consecutive presidential election for the first time since Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman won five straight elections from 1932 to 1948?
Despite Democrats’ midterm shellacking and talk of a “depressed” liberal base, many in the party still like their starting position for 2016. Ruy Teixiera, a Democratic demographer, points to a group of states worth 242 electoral votes that the Democratic presidential nominee has won in every election since 1992. Hold them all, and the party is just 28 votes shy of the majority needed to win the White House next time.
Obama twice compiled at least 332 electoral votes by adding wins in almost every competitive state. He posted double-digit wins among women, huge margins among voters younger than 30 and historically high marks among blacks and Latinos.
As non-white voters continue to grow as a share of the electorate, a Democratic nominee who roughly holds onto Obama’s 2012 level of support across all demographic groups would win the national popular vote by about 6 percentage points and coast to victory in the Electoral College, Teixeira estimates.
Republicans crowed in 2004 that freshly re-elected President George W. Bush had established a “permanent governing majority” for the GOP. Eight years later, Democrats were touting the enduring power of the “Obama coalition” to keep their party in the White House.
But Democrats couldn’t sustain that coalition for this year’s midterm elections, leading to Republican gains in Congress, governorships and state legislatures nationwide.
“The notion of demographics as destiny is overblown,” said Republican pollster and media strategist Wes Anderson. “Just like (Bush aide Karl) Rove was wrong with that ‘permanent majority’ talk, Democrats have to remember that the pendulum is always swinging.”
So how will it swing in 2016? Is the path to 270 electoral votes so fixed that one side just can’t win? Will President Barack Obama’s limited popularity be a burden for the Democratic nominee in the next race for the White House? Or will an increasingly diverse electorate pick a Democrat for a third consecutive presidential election for the first time since Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman won five straight elections from 1932 to 1948?
Despite Democrats’ midterm shellacking and talk of a “depressed” liberal base, many in the party still like their starting position for 2016. Ruy Teixiera, a Democratic demographer, points to a group of states worth 242 electoral votes that the Democratic presidential nominee has won in every election since 1992. Hold them all, and the party is just 28 votes shy of the majority needed to win the White House next time.
Obama twice compiled at least 332 electoral votes by adding wins in almost every competitive state. He posted double-digit wins among women, huge margins among voters younger than 30 and historically high marks among blacks and Latinos.
As non-white voters continue to grow as a share of the electorate, a Democratic nominee who roughly holds onto Obama’s 2012 level of support across all demographic groups would win the national popular vote by about 6 percentage points and coast to victory in the Electoral College, Teixeira estimates.
