Jehangir Hussain :
The world is facing an unprecedented crisis since the covid pandemic struck 18 months or so ago. New virus strains and human toll has increased the concerns. The outlook would be shaped by how economic policies are used under the uncertainties in limiting the unprecedented global crisis. Nations and their economies are struggling with rising unemployment as the pandemic has struck almost every country and changed the world. The pandemic has spread at high speed, infecting millions and bringing economic activity to almost a halt as countries imposed restrictions on movement to check the spread of the virus. The economic damage is evident with growing health and human toll. The world is seeing the largest economic shock in decades. Developing and emerging economies are paying heavy prices.
Development of vaccines could not generate the confidence that they would provide the path to recovery. Rather, economists are not sure how long it would take for the employment levels to return their pre-pandemic levels. The World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund projected global growth at 6 per cent in 2021, falling to 4.4 per cent in 2022, stronger than in October 2020. Advanced economies are enjoying a stronger recovery than expected earlier due mainly to improving outlook for health, the ability of government insurance to protect earnings during lockdowns and cheap borrowings by governments facilitated by their central banks. But it is significant to note that even the U S has not yet succeeded in raising its economic activity to the pre pandemic levels. China’s was the lone major economy to grow at 2.3 per cent in 2020. Many countries are struggling with rising unemployment. Development of new vaccines could not remove the concern of people as skepticism persists regarding recovery and about the picture of the world, even if it succeeds in tackling the crisis.
Economists are not sure how long it would take to restore employment to pre-pandemic levels. The International Monetary Fund predicted a 5.2 per cent in 2021 for the world, facing the worst decline since the depression of 1930s. Pharmaceutical firms seem to among a few winners since the corona pandemic began. In developed countries most people are unwilling to travel more than 5 kms to shop, the change in shopping behavior has boosted online retail sales. The decision of people to stay homes has drastically cut the number of shoppers. The travel industry lost billions of dollars in 2020, the international travel and tourism are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels any time soon, predicted experts. Hospitality industry has shut doors virtually worldwide and the global tourism industry is in tatters. The airlines were forced to count losses as customers cancelled business and vacation trips. No one knows how many people lost jobs worldwide. But many people in developed countries said, ‘I am in self isolation and won’t get paid.’ Many countries are in recession. Covid-19 has caused between 7million and 13 million excess deaths worldwide, according to The Economist as governments hid statistics or did not have the ability to correctly compute the loss of lives.
The Economist also said, ‘Death rates have been very high in some rich countries, but the overwhelming majority of 6.7 million or so deaths that nobody counted were in poor and middle-income ones.’ The Economist warned, unless vaccine supplies reach poor countries, the tragic scenes now unfolding in India risk being repeated elsewhere. It said, the world cannot rest while people perish for want of a two- dose vaccine costing only $ 4. It also said if US President Joe Biden really wants to make a difference, he can donate vaccine right now through COVAX. It said that the rich countries over-ordered because they did not know which vaccines would work. Britain ordered nine doses for each adult, Canada – more than 13 doses for each. The rich world should not stockpile boosters to cover their population many times over thinking that they could be needed, it said. ‘Covid-19 has not yet run its course. But vaccines have created the chance to save millions of lives. The world must not squander it,’ said The Economist. In Bangladesh, millions of school children dropped out in last one year.
Mahfuz, 11, said replying to a question that he was in class four one year ago, now he works as a helper in a bus to support his mother a domestic worker and his father, who pulls rickshaw for his living. Mahfuz supports his parents’ family of five. The family live in a shanty at Mohammadpur. The authorities know nothing about Mahfuz and the other countless dropouts and also that these children are in risky jobs. In one year since March 2020 children developed many problems being confined indoors. Time seems to have frozen, parents said March 2020 seems to be a decade ago.
(Jehangir Hussain is a journalist. Email: [email protected])
