Kazi Zahidul Hasan :
The new coronavirus outbreak could deal a severe blow to the Bangladesh economy, which was on a recovery track following the first wave of the pandemic, economists opined on Sunday.
They also observed that a new round of restrictions aimed at containing the fresh wave of coronavirus infections could also throw the economic recovery off track.
Bangladesh reported 5.24 percent GDP growth in the financial year 2019-20 after the pandemic ravaged the economy for at least a third of the financial year along with 45-day lockdown period between March and May last year.
“The economy is in tatters already taking a hit from first wave of the pandemic. The reintroduction of lockdown as a result of sudden surge in Covid infection could once again hurt the economy,” economist Dr Ahsan Mansur told The New Nation.
He said though the lockdown is ‘half-hearted’, it would send a wave of shock to several economic sectors like retail and informal businesses, services, tourism and consumption. “Thousands of traders were betting high hope centering Pahela Boishakh, Ramzan and Eid transactions. But the fresh lockdown to keep coronavirus under control will seriously affect their business and consequently send a potential shock to the economy,” he noted.
Dr Ahsan Mansur, Executive Director of Policy Research Institute (PRI), Bangladesh, pointed that the country’s job market remains in limbo due to the protracted pandemic. “The situation could aggravate further following enforcement of the lockdown.”
He also apprehended that a flare-up in new coronavirus cases around the world would also hit Bangladesh’s export sector. “Bangladesh exports will see a persistent
slowdown as a result of a protracted decline in external demands. It will take at least three years to get back the export growth in pre-pandemic level.”
The country’s export earnings in last fiscal year (2019-20) fell by 14.57 per cent to $33.60 billion from $39.33 billion in the previous year due to a lower shipment of readymade garment products as the Covid-19 outbreak hit hard the global business.
According to Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) data, export earnings in the first half (July-December) of the current financial year 2020-21 fell by 0.36 per cent to $19.23 billion from $19.30 billion in the same period of FY 2019-20.
Former adviser to the caretaker government Dr AB Mirza Azizul Islam said that the fresh
corona wave and lockdown will undoubtedly leave a negative impact on economy and growth. It will reduce people’s income as well as their ability to spend. As a result, demand will decrease. However, the damage will depend on how long the lockdown lasts.
“In this situation, the government should widen social safety-net programme and improve distribution system,” he added.
Dr Zahid Hussain, former Lead Economist at World Bank’s Dhaka office, said Bangladesh economy faces persistent uncertainty due to resurgence in coronavirus cases. “The rising coronavirus cases will disrupt the country’s growth in the near-term,” he added.
He also mentioned that reimposition of lockdown would definitely hurt the economy by lowering spending and investment.
Bangladesh recorded more than 7,000 Covid-19 cases on Sunday. This was the highest number of infections recorded in a day so far in the country.
