PLANNING MINISTER AHM Mustafa Kamal’s claim on Thursday that the GDP growth during the current fiscal 2014-15 would stand at 6.51 percent despite three months serious political turmoil and that it could have been at 7.0 percent had there been no such trouble affecting the national economy. The Minister’s claim has sparked controversy as his critics fear that the government may be using data on the higher side than the reality in the ground to show a higher growth as a political success story in managing the economy through crisis. However, such mingling of economic data with political objectives is highly misleading.
Executive Director of Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Prof Mustafizur Rahman is quoted to have said commenting to media on the Minister’s claim that “These provisional figures appear to be higher than what was indicated in term-loan disbursement, investment, revenue generation, exports and the adverse impacts of the political turmoil on manufacturing and services sectors.”
During the last fiscal year, when the country witnessed a similar bout of political upheaval, economic growth was reported at 6.06 percent. The government’s GDP figure this year thus appears much higher than the analysts and development partners’ estimates suggest. For instance, the World Bank scaled down Bangladesh’s growth forecast to 5.6 percent this year in light of the political developments of the January-March period. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) anticipated the growth at 6.1 percent.
But our Planning Minister appears more upbeat to justify lower losses to the economy from the political crisis which was marred with nationwide blockade and hartals and violence in the roads and highways; blocking transportation of merchandise and productivities in mills and factories. Rural sector suffered the worst. In his view ‘the valiant nature of the truck drivers, the industrial workers and day-labourers is going to contribute to the higher growth. They went on work despite the risks to their lives and kept the wheels of the economy rolling.’
But it appears that the new claims are openly contradicting the earlier blames on prolong crisis as having serious retarding impact on growth. For example, World Bank estimate suggested Bangladesh’s loss from this year’s political crisis at $2.2 billion (approximately Tk 17,150 crore) or 1 percentage point of GDP. The CPD found the loss at 0.55 percent of the GDP. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina herself briefed Jatiya Sangsad on the losses saying it stood over Tk 1.2 lakh crore during the 52 days of the unrest.
Now the new estimate suggest that despite the massive economic losses, the GDP is not going to show much lower growth. The contradictions are puzzling as analysts wonder to ascertain why the government wants to deny the fact that the political crisis has had a high price on the national economy. Let the economy function based on economic considerations.
