Dr. Matiur Rahman & Shishir Reza :
Most recently, peoples economist Professor Dr. Abul Barkat, in his masterpiece book titled “Boro Prodaye Somaj-Orthoniti-Rastro: Vairuser Mohabiporjoye Thekey Shovon Bangladehser Sondhane (On the Larger Canvas of Society-Economy-State: In Search of a Transition from the Virus-Driven Great Disaster to a Decent Bangladesh)” pointed out through research that Covid-19 and the related lockdown have radically changed the class structure of Bangladesh. Due to Covid-19, the income inequality of the people of Bangladesh has increased tremendously and he has provided valuable suggestions to the policy makers on what to do to overcome this situation.
Professor Abul Barkat has shown that the previous class structure in Bangladesh out of 170 million people before the lockdown announced by the government in 2020 to prevent Covid- 19 was as follows: (in the total household of the country) poor 20 percent, middle class 70 percent, rich 10 percent. And after the lockdown, the class structure has changed completely such as: the poor 40 percent, the middle class 50 percent, the rich 10 percent. So, it is certain that the class position of a large number of people has changed in just two months due to Covid-19 – it has gone down.
Dr. Barkat estimates that before the lockdown last year (2020), at the end of February, the number of poor people in Bangladesh was 34 million out of total 170 million people, and after two months long lockdown the number of poor people in one leap has increased to 68 million. In other words, 34 million people have become poor again in just two months due to Covid-19. Among the poorest, the poorest those “who earn every day and eat every day” (or in government statistics as the minimum 10 decile of household income) accounted for 10 percent of total households before the lockdown but it increased to 25 percent after the lockdown. Before the lockdown the absolute number of them was 17 million people, but after the lockdown (in just 2 months) that number has increased to 42.5 million people, that is, 25.5 million people have been added to the ‘hardcore poor’ class. They were in the ‘poor’ class before the lockdown but they dropped into the ‘hardcore poor’ class in 66 days.
He has also shown that due to Covid-19, changes occurred in the ‘middle-class’ class structure extensively and diversely. Before the lockdown, the total number of middle class people in Bangladesh (70 percent of the total households) was 119 million out of 170 million people, which has come down to 85 million after the lockdown (just 2 months apart). In other words, in just two months, Covid-19 has dragged down 34 million middle class people in the lower segment. In this book, he also explained in detail the possibility of the emergence of the middle class as a potential force for social change. According to Professor Barkat, the ‘middle class’ people are not in same characteristics. The ‘middle class’ has three major sub-classes: lower-middle class, mid-middle class and upper-middle class. Professor Barkat further noted that the Covid-19 (and the associated lockdown) did not have the same effect on these three types of middle class (sub-class of middle class). In his opinion, the lower-middle class has suffered the most from the lockdown: before the lockdown, there were a total of 51 million people in the lower-middle class, whose number has become 39.1 million after the lockdown, or 11.9 million middle class people lost in just within two months. He stated that those number of middle class people are not really lost, they were forced to join the poor class.
The condition of mid-middle-class people is also deplorable. Before the lockdown, they were 20 percent of the total households and after the lockdown the figure has come down to 14 per cent, i.e. the size of the mid-middle class has shrunk from 34 million to 23.8 million. In other words, 80 percent of the 10.2 million mid-middle class people have joined the lower-middle class and 20 percent of them have joined the poor class. The upper-middle class is also not in the previous place. Before the lockdown, the upper-middle class in the country (those at the top of the middle class) accounted for 20 percent of the total households – which has come down to 13 per cent after the lockdown. In other words, before the lockdown, the number of people in the upper-middle class was 34 million, which has come down to 22.1 million after the lockdown. Even among the upper-middle class, 11.9 million people have gone down the class ladder, probably joined in the mid-middle class group. However, a small number of them can become rich by climbing the ladder (because in the event of an epidemic, the fortunes of some people are auspicious for various reasons). He showed that the condition of the rich (including the ultra-rich) living at the top of the class ladder has not changed but the condition of some of them has improved.
(Dr. Matiur Rahman is Research Consultant, Human Development Research Centre (HDRC) and Shishir Reza is Associate Member, Bangladesh Economic Association (BEA)
