DISCUSSANTS at a CPD dialogue on Analysis of the National Budget FY2014-15 opined that political consensus is a must for good governance. The seminar recommended a few important points for the overall macroeconomic recovery and sustainability such as establishing an Independent Statistical Commission to validate the macroeconomic correlates; setting up an Agriculture Price Commission; a Local Government Financing Commission and a Public Expenditure Review Commission. The economists also pointed out the inadequacy of parliamentary discussion on the budget in terms of time and reviewing system and urged reform as required by a Westminster style democracy.
It is to be mentioned that CPD has iteratively suggested economic reforms and the enabling of an institutional and policy environment to achieve desired macroeconomic performance and budget implementation. Renowned economists stressed that ambitions set in the National Budget FY2014-15 needs to be attuned to realize the budgetary targets. They also opined that Bangladesh’s target to become a middle-income country by 2021 may remain unrealized without addressing infrastructural deficiencies and establishing good governance and an agreeable political climate. A former governor of Bangladesh Bank highlighted major challenges such as possible food and non-food inflation hikes; sluggish employment creation; increasing inequality and regional disparity of personal income. He particularly urged the government to complete the incomplete ADP projects related to infrastructure and reinvigorate IMED.
We have no doubt that without a political consensus there cannot be long term stability in the macroeconomy because of a number of reasons. First and foremost, long term domestic investment will not materialize if there exists a credible threat of uncertainty and a political legitimacy crisis that exists now. Secondly, foreign promises of funding will not materialize. For example, in the latest visit of our PM to China the most important infrastructure project treaty—the Sonadia deep sea port, was not signed. It is no wonder that without a politically stable and morally legitimate government no foreign friend will be willing to sign such a deal unless there are ulterior motives. Any sensible man will agree with CPD’s other recommendations to set up some independent commissions to speed up the economic accountability and good governance as well.
But if the government has no accountability, not being elected, no other body can fill that demand.
Our big crisis is that we do not have political leadership to know how importance political understanding is for economic development, peace and progress. We have extreme political uncertainty and disorder. Killings and violence are everyday affairs. No government should feel happy that no election process is kept effective for peaceful change of the government.
The CPD and other civil society bodies have to understand that we have no political leader for political solution. The needed solution has to come from civil society. We have to be more blunt and open about the void in political leadership.
