Choudhury Zafor Sadeque :
The prospect of forming an alliance among the three countries — China, Russia and Pakistan was in the air for last few months. Now it is going to be a reality soon. Specially after biggest ever brutal bombardment in the so called IS camp in Afghanistan by U.S.A. killing more than hundred civilian people including woman and children. The formation of the alliance has become imperative.
Unending instability and presence of IS elements in Afghanistan are the major challenges for the countries in the region. On December 27, 2016, officials from Russia, China and Pakistan met in Moscow for the third Trilateral Dialogue on Afghanistan, where all three states deliberated on the deteriorating state of affairs in the country, the stalled Afghan peace process and the growing threat of the Islamic State (IS) in the region. In a joint statement, representatives from all three countries reaffirmed their support for an inclusive Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation process, underlined the importance of intensifying efforts in this regard, and the importance of adopting flexible measures to remove the names of certain Taliban members from the sanctions lists in order to encourage peace talks.
Growing insecurity in Afghanistan, the Taliban’s thriving insurgency coupled with the alleged rise of the Islamic State(IS) or Daesh, and its spillover effect have further made Afghanistan an issue of concern for reighbouring countries, particularly Pakistan, China and Russia whose security is directly affected by events in Afghanistan. Russia’s growing interest in Afghanistan is chiefly due to the presence of IS in the region, whom it believes is trying to make inroads by training individuals from Central Asia and Russia(primarily the Chechen separatist groups) to destabilize Central Asia and Russia. Hence, it is believed that the possible alliance between Chechen separatist groups and the IS and the threat posed by them have prompted Russia to reach out and establish contacts with the Afghan Talibans who have opposed IS in Afganistan.
India is holding on to the red lines for integration of Taliban into the Afghan government but that seems to be getting diluted by the new axis, which is less Afghan-led and more Pakistan-led putting “Pakistan once again in the driver’s seat on Afghanistan’s future. Russia is looking for two things — an opening to Pakistan and a lever against IS that Moscow believes could be at its doorstep, the fact that the Russians form the largest group of IS fighters.
The Taliban, who previously considered Russia an enemy, have welcomed the trilateral initiative, expressing that “it is joyous to see that regional countries have also understood that the Taliban are a political and military force and that the proposal forwarded in the Moscow Tripartite of delisting members of the group is a positive step in bringing peace and security to Afghanistan.”
Similarly, the recent unexpected contact between Russia and the Taliban over their common enemy, the IS, has brought a new dimension to the Afghan issue. Zamir Kabulov, Russia’s special envoy to Afghanistan had recently expressed that the “Taliban interests objectively coincide with ours.”
While Russia’s outreach towards the Taliban appears to be political, the apparent deepening of ties between the two former adversaries has been an issue of concern for Afghan stand and the US who concerned that “Russian support may lead to or include weapons or funding.”
Similarly, China which has traditionally maintained a limited role in Afghanistan has begun to play a more proactive and constructive role in helping to bring about stability in the country by offering necessary facilitation between the Afghan government and the Taliban in realizing reconciliation. Since 2014, China has hosted a number of Taliban delegations and has taken part in several initiatives including the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism(QCCM) to hold foster talk. China’s increasing interest and involvement in Afghanistan stem from its fears of the possible spread of militancy into its Sinkiang province, the spread of IS and its support to the Chinese militant groups i.e. ETIM separatist group based in Sinkiang. Apart from the spread of militancy, ongoing instability in Afghanistan continues to be a major hurdle for interconnectivity in the region and in particular, the implementation of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The trilateral Dislogue has taken place at a time when relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are at their lowest. However, in an effort to ease tensions, the recent overture by Pakistan’s of Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa towards the Afghan leadership, in which he “pledged to work together for sustainable peace in the region”, has invoked a positive response from the Ghani administration, leading to an invitation for General Bajwa to visit Kabul. Hence, it is anticipated that relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan will move away from the present hostillty towards enhanced cooperation on the existing continuous issues. Apart from improving ties with Afghanistan, the presence of IS (daesh) has become a major issue of concern for Pakistan.
The growing presence of the IS and its possible penetration into Afghanistan is a significant factor that could convince the Taliban to enter into a dialogue process with the Taliban. Although the Taliban have been known to converge with other terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda, a possible convergence with the IS is not plausible due to differences in their ideological agenda. The Talibans are an indigenous group, following the Deobandi school of thoughts with a local agenda. Whereas the Islamic State follows the Salafi Tukfirism, and has a global agenda to establish Islamic Caliphate beyond Syria and Iraq.
Therefore, in such a scenario, it is imperative that efforts (regional and intra-regional) are made to help achieve stability in Afghanistan and for this ,achieving peace with the Taliban is essential. Neither the Afghan government nor the Taliban can afford to miss the opportunity of initiating talks and thus provide space for the IS to spread its influence in Afghanistan. Continued fighting and stalled peace talks will only result in a possible vacuum for the IS to fill. Hence, with changing regional dynamics and the looming threat of the Islamic State, all regional countries have a special stake in the stability of Afghanistan. Therefore, all initiatives in this regard should be encouraged including the trilateral meeting. The Trilateral dialogue is a positive step in the right direction.
Although before formally declaring the tri-Iateral alliance having been inspired by their move the Talebans have already stepped up their activities. The first instance they have already exposed to the world by bringing about the biggest ever blast in Majar-e-Sharef that took the lives of 150 members of the allied force. Consequence is the resignation of Defence Minister Abdullah Habibi and Chief of Staff of Afghan Army Kadan Shah Shahin. This resignation will have far reaching effect in Afghan Government.
It is lamentable that when regional stakeholders are taking Pakistan on board, India has been resorting to isolate Pakistan which is very immature approach in the current scenario. This tripartite alliance of Pakistan, China and Russia is enough evidence that India will have to revive its approach towards Pakistan in its own and regional interest.
