Challenges of population

block

Md Mosaddek Hussain :Although population aging presents major challenges for even the most developed countries, developing countries face particular issues in constructing policies that address increasing elderly populations in the regions. Needless to sit that population ageing is now the major challenges for the nations both in developed and developing countries. Now, it is the high time to take effective measures to combat the ensuing issues to be faced by the nations in the 21st century. Strain on informal support systemsOlder people or Elderly in developing countries have relied heavily on their family for personal care, material and other support. Today, however, such support is under pressure from trends that include falling fertility rates (which mean fewer children as caregivers); changing cultural norms; increased longevity of the elderly; and the migration of rural young people to cities and away from elderly relatives for finding livelihoods or other purposes. Several trends might also soon have impact on informal support systems. First, the proportion of the elderly who are divorced or never married will likely increases, reflecting the marriage patterns of today’s younger cohorts. Second, the percentages of the elderly who live alone, only with their spouse (without any adult children), or in institutional settings will likely increase in developing countries because of declining fertility, changing norms of familial support, improved joint survival of couples, and a potentially growing acceptance and availability of institutional care for the elderly. Third, rapid urbanization and growing out-migration of young adults to urban areas may mean that their parents will age in rural areas without the direct support of the children and face difficult living conditions without access to various amenities those are necessary for their daily living.Pressure on health care systems The health care systems of many developing countries are still focused on childhood and infectious diseases as well as reproductive-health services. But population aging leads to increasing demand for care that addresses chronic health conditions. Per capita health expenditures also tend to be much higher for elderly adults than younger adults. The growing size of elderly populations-combined with these populations’ disproportionately large consumption of health care per capita-will place increasing pressure on developing-country health care systems.Shrinking productivity and increasing demand for pensions Growth in elderly populations may pressure developing economies by increasing demand for pension payments and reducing economic productivity of work forces in the developed countries but the pension system is not available for all the citizens in developing countries, only the govt. employees are qualified for govt. pension after completion a specified period of service under government. Today’s relatively high level of labour force participation among older adults in developing countries reflects the lack of comprehensive old-age pension systems in these countries. Labour force participation rates for the elderly are projected to decline as economies expand and societies become wealthier. Pension system is not available for all in Bangladesh.Increasingly feminised older populations Women generally make up the majority of elderly populations around the world, and the female advantage in life expectancy will probably widen further in the developing world as gender gaps in education and economic opportunities narrow.Still, elderly women are generally more likely to be disabled, widowed, living alone, and to have fewer financial resources compared with elderly men at any given age. These factors must be taken into account in formulating policies on the elderly, especially because women will make up an increasingly greater proportion of the elderly populations in developing countries. In Bangladesh, a recent report highlights that the number of male and female will be the same within 20 years. At present, the proportion is nearly male: 51 per cent and female 49 per cent, which comprised the total population of Bangladesh.Support necessary in the old age: A moralityState and policymakers must realize that many less developed countries currently have or will have a demographic window of opportunity over the next generation-an optimal time for investing in formal systems of old-age support. This window has been opened by falling fertility rates, which mean that the number of working-age adults in the developing world will continue over the next few decades to grow faster than the number of children and elderly.To offset the impact of the demographic shift and other changes on the traditional system, policymakers must invest in the systems that would encourage and facilitate the elderly to work longer, save more, and rely on public pension and health care programs to meet their needs fully in the later stage of life cycle. Below are some policy measures that could help less developed countries to deal with population aging. But, the governments of developing countries should come forward for ensuring betterment of older people by undertaking various welfare steps, policies, programmes and relevant employment projects. Employment projects can ensure the opportunities for earning in the later age of citizens and enhance high degree of economic freedom in their social life.Facilitate family provision of support Programs to assist families in caring for the elderly include providing tax incentives for elder care and increasing day care and home nursing services. Creating public housing options for multigenerational living also encourages such living arrangements and might facilitate family care for the elderly.Increase employment opportunities for the elderly Greater workforce retention levels would help elderly individuals save more for retirement; they would also bolster the fiscal viability of public pension and health care programs. Work disincentives and labour market impediments to the elderly (such as low mandatory retirement ages) should be eliminated. Increasing both flexible and part-time employment options as well as expanding educational programs for older workers are also essential. Finally, policymakers should encourage high rates of personal savings by managing inflation to secure the value of savings over the long-term.Establish or expand public pension systems Most developing countries have pension coverage that is restricted to small segments of the workforce, such as those working for government or large companies. Public pension programs, most of which also cover some disability insurance, provide an economic safety net and also allow risk pooling to mitigate the cost of becoming disabled, making poor investments and outliving one’s savings.However, providing wide coverage in developing countries requires political stability and may be administratively challenging, particularly in places with high proportions of agricultural, self-employed, and informal-sector workers. These programs also must be designed with enough capacity to incorporate the expanding ratio of elderly to working-age populations.Prepare health care systemsAs in the case of pension coverage, insurance programs for the elderly in most developing countries cover only a small minority of that population. Without universal access to even basic health care in many developing countries, securing the care to address chronic conditions for the elderly is often lower priority.Finding workable policies on agingDeveloping or expanding health insurance programs for the elderly population, improving the capacity of health care systems to treat chronic conditions, and achieving these without forgoing vital services for other age groups-are major policy questions facing rapidly aging countries. While developing countries can learn from the policy successes and failures of developed countries, adopting these policies in a short time frame and at much lower levels of economic development has never been attempted. Addressing the health care and economic needs of increasing numbers of elderly will also require balancing these needs with those of other populations as well as summoning the political will to support often very expensive programs. But the opportunity for such investments will be available only for a few decades, and the cost of squandering this opportunity will be high.Aging population: Asian scenarioAll across Asia, the number of people age 65 and above is expected to grow dramatically over the next 50 years. For the region as a whole, the population in this age group will increase by 314 per cent-from 207 million in 2000 to 857 million in 2050. Facing an unprecedented pace of population aging, Asian governments must tackle important policy challenges. How best can the needs of the elderly be met in the coming days? Will current approaches to support the elderly place an undue burden on the younger generation? And are there dangers that programs for the elderly will undermine economic growth? These issues are also being confronted in the Western countries where population aging is more advanced and handled carefully by various measures. But the process of population aging is occurring much more rapidly in Asia than it did in Western countries and it will occur in some Asian countries at a much earlier stage of economic development.In 2000, the average age in Asia was 29 years. An estimated 6 per cent of the region’s total population were age 65 and older, 30 per cent were under age 15, and 64 per cent were in the working-age group of 15 to 64 years (United Nations 2001. At present, about 7.4 per cent people are shown as the elderly people in Bangladesh United Nations medium projections estimate that the proportion in the working-age group will be the same in 2050, at 64 percent, but there will be a dramatic shift in the proportion of children and the elderly. The proportion under age 15 will drop to 19 percent, and the proportion 65 and older will rise to 18 percent. The average age in Asia will be 40 years. In general, the countries of East Asia are furthest along in the population aging process, followed by Southeast Asia and then South AsiaThe exceptions are Singapore in Southeast Asia and Sri Lanka in South Asia, where relatively large proportions of the population are elderly, and Mongolia in East Asia, where the proportion elderly is still small. Japan has the oldest population in Asia, with 17 per cent age 65 and older, and the most rapidly aging population in the world. The United Nations medium scenario anticipates that 29 per cent of Japanese will be 65 or older by 2025 and 36 percent will be 65 or older by 2050. Bangladesh, by contrast, has the youngest population of any major country in the region, with 3 per cent 65 or older in 2000. But even Bangladesh and Asia’s other young populations will experience rapid population aging during the coming decades. Bangladesh’s 65-and-older population is projected to rise to 5 percent in 2025 and 11 percent in 2050.Future trends for Asia’s elderly: More will be in the oldest age groups Today, Asia’s elderly are concentrated primarily in the younger segments of the old-age population group. Over time, however, the greatest increases in population will occur in the oldest age groups. Of all Asians age 55 and older, roughly one-half are now between the ages of 55 and 64, about one-third are between 65 and 74, and not quite one-sixth are 75 and above. These proportions will remain fairly stable over the next 25 years, but over the following 25-year period the proportion in the oldest age group (75 and above) is expected to increase substantially-from 15 percent in 2000 to 17 percent in 2025 and then up to 27 per cent in 2050.Most will be women In most countries of Asia, as in the rest of the world, older women outnumber older men, particularly in the oldest age groups. Today, among the population age 55 and above, there are about 90 men in Asia for every 100 women. Among those cross age 75 years and above, there are only about 70 menElderly denotes (60+ and in many countries: 65+) Working age (15-64 years),Proportions of working-age: adults (age 15-64 years), children (age 0-14 years), and elderly (age 65+ years), 1950-2050  Source: United Nations (2001).Asia’s aging populationIn Asia, there are 85 men for every 100 women. This is a persistent feature of Asia’s population that is not expected to change much over the next 50 years. Fewer will be widowed Traditionally, nearly everyone in Asian regions has married, and very few have divorced. Thus, most of the elderly are living with a spouse or are widowed. As life expectancies rise, the proportion of the elderly who are widowed at any given age will decline sharply. Women will be especially affected because they are much more likely than men to be widowed. This is similarly true in the case of Bangladesh. Today, for example, just over one-half (52 per cent) of all South Korean women age 65 to 69 are widows. This proportion is expected to drop to 17 per cent in 2050. In Thailand, 32 percent of women in this age group are widowed today, also projected to drop to 17 per cent in 2050. Among men age 65 to 69, only 8 percent are widowers in South Korea and only 10 percent in Thailand. Because the proportions of men widowed are already low, the decline will be more modest for men than for women.

block