Zannatul Mouwa Naz :
The world’s newest coronavirus is spreading rapidly. The whole world is burning with the aggressive horror of Corona. People are scared today. The coronavirus is not just a health risk, it is shaking the entire world economy. As a result, the wheel of the economy stopped. As a result, Bangladesh’s GDP growth may be reduced to. As a result, people may lose their jobs and become unemployed. Experts say there are fears that the coronavirus could cause a humanitarian catastrophe in the country. Similarly, coronavirus poses a risk to human health as well as public health in Bangladesh.
Coronavirus is isolating one country after another in fear of the world. All the big global events are going to be closed. Economic activities are declining due to the closure of schools, colleges and businesses. The loss is to various industries. As a result, landslides are taking place in those places. As the situation worsened, authorities were forced to ban travel and transportation in different cities. There is still panic because the antidote has not been discovered. As a result, it is having an impact on the world economy. However, experts have doubts about how serious it will be.
JP Morgan says the next two quarters will see negative growth in the global economy due to the corona virus. This year, economic growth is expected to be less than half that of 2019, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). According to a Bloomberg report, the coronavirus will cause a loss of 2.7 trillion dollars to the world economy, which is equal to the GDP of the entire United Kingdom. There are even fears that the United States, Europe, and Japan could fall into recession. According to him, although it is a very dangerous and widespread virus, it is very difficult to sort out the permanent damage to global GDP (economic activity). This impact will fall on Bangladesh as well.
Exports and remittances are the two main driving forces of Bangladesh’s economy. Declining export earnings will reduce the income of workers in the country’s industries or create job uncertainty. On the other hand, if the expatriates reduce remittances, their families will not be able to spend in the country as before. This will have a negative impact on trade and commerce. Trading will be reduced. If the demand decreases, the manufacturers of consumer goods will face losses. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has already said that Bangladesh’s GDP could shrink by 1.1 percent in the worst case scenario. According to them, the total loss will be three hundred million dollars, eight million 94 thousand 930 people will lose their jobs. A report in the English daily The Daily Star has given such information.
Corona’s impact has led to the biggest drop in world oil prices since 2008. This year alone, crude Brent is selling at 33, down 50 percent. There is no indication that this situation will end suddenly Because when the global economy slows down, the demand for energy continues to decline If this situation continues, the Middle East’s oil-dependent economies will have to bear the brunt of the losses. The bulk of Bangladesh’s expatriate income comes from here. Of course, there is room for hope Because Bangladesh buys all the fuel oil from the world market. With the reduction in prices, the cost of imports will be much lower than before If the government adjusts the prices in the market accordingly, then the cost of production and transportation of the industry will be reduced. Ordinary people can also benefit from this.
The idea is that the coronavirus is spreading from person to person. As a result, most people are not leaving their homes due to government restrictions and panic. Many cities are closed to traffic and shops. As a result, a kind of stagnation has come down in the economy. This is hurting the supply of industrial products. This is hampering the shipment of many products; in some cases, it is becoming much more expensive. There is also financial loss due to local people not joining or not being able to join the workplace. Bangladeshi workers or traders are not able to earn enough income due to coronavirus. As a result, he is not able to send money to his family as before. This will have an effect on the foreign exchange reserves.
There are about 1 crore rickshaw pullers, day labourers, factory workers and domestic workers in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. It is not possible for them to stay away from work for long. That is why a big humanitarian crisis is going to be created in Bangladesh, said the World Economic Forum. According to the agency, 90 percent of the people in Bangladesh work in the informal sector. Health insurance is a luxury here, and most homes do not have internet. Most work cannot be done at home. According to the World Bank, 15 percent of Bangladeshis earn less than Rs 500 a day. Which goes away on a daily basis. And the place of reliance of the people of the village is remittances from abroad. In the global crisis, that certainty is no more. Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Executive Director Prof. According to Mustafizur Rahman, Bangladesh is in a dilemma with 3 crises. These are health crisis, humanitarian crisis and economic crisis. As a government, 20 percent of the country’s people live below the poverty line and 10 percent below the extreme poverty line. None of them have savings. He said the country’s labor market is 61 million people. Of these, 1 crore 10 lakh people get monthly salary. The rest are dependent on daily wages. 28 million people are employed in self-employment. At present they have no income.
According to the study, the amount of losses in agriculture, industry and services sector in the country is 3,300 crore taka per day. The three major sectors of the economy of Bangladesh – agriculture, industry and service sectors as well as the sub-sectors of these three sectors are also analyzed.
Many people do not follow the instructions to stay at home to prevent the spread of corona infection. Instead of staying at home, people are going out of the house unnecessarily. Some are out on their stomachs and some are going out for market or chat. The government, in consultation with the World Health Organization, has announced a nationwide lockdown to prevent corona. People are also banned from leaving the house from 6pm to 6am. Separately, different districts and upazilas of the country have been locked down. But as the lockdown has not intensified, the number of coronary heart disease patients is increasing with the growing human-economic problems.
The Covid 19 or Coronavirus has certainly created a humanitarian crisis in terms of public health. In this case, it is important to maintain a large social distance or distance between people. But with the economic downturn coming, most people in the country will have to face a food crisis in a few weeks. It must find a way to alleviate it. The poor people of this country who eat day in and day out have been left without food. We have to find a way for these people to survive. If they have to stay under house arrest, they need food or cash on an emergency basis. In this case, mobile money providers can keep their agents active. And we have to come up with a financial system so that money can reach every household, absolutely in the hands of the marginalized people of the village. Then it will be possible to prevent at least some humanitarian catastrophe.
(Zannatul Mouwa Naz, Student, Environmental Science and Engineering, Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Trishal, Mymensingh; email: [email protected])
