Dr. Md. Shairul Masreque :
The proposed budget reads more like a figure jugglery than a strategic action plan. It is a hefty budget with lofty goals. The budget contains a host of beautiful points of course with a ‘weave of dreams’. Finance minister AMA Muhith, while reading out the mega-budget, seems to be caught up in the web of utter imagination echoing ‘building road of future and’ ‘a vision of 2021 ‘. During 2009-10 budget speech he announced that by the year 2021 Bangladesh will attain a tremendous economic growth (two-digit growth) bolstered by a spectacular technological advancement and ‘new heights of excellence’ in ICT.’ Now he hopes for tremendous socio-economic development ‘through an infrastructure boon’ and accelerated investment aiming at a GDP growth of 7.3 pc. In fact TK 2, 50,506 crore budget is definitely ambitious
In fact, the Finance Minister uttered a bunch of optimistic notes projecting astounding progress of nation in the years to come. The essence of his philosophical imaginings albeit with a rhapsody of allegorical notes is obviously the vision 2021. He masterminded the whole gamut of thematic conceptualization using his intellectual properties to throw down the gauntlet projecting lofty goals of development expressing utter determination to implement Padma Bridge. The bitter experience hovering around this giant bridge has propelled him to go for a massive domestic resource mobilization giving a damn to donors like World Ban and ADB. TK 8100 has been earmarked for completing Padma bridge. Allocation has also been made expanding Dhaka-Chittagong high way and beginning metro rail project for Dhaka.
His new vision to combat intriguing crisis as reflected in his marathon budget speech is ostensibly a harbinger of societal transformation ushering in a dreamland where the people will be fed in milk and honey. Claiming success in poverty reduction Muhith expressed a tiptoe expectation for the elimination of extreme poverty by 2018. The proposed budget allocated TK 1500 crore to eliminate extreme poverty. It is worth mentioning that 45 per cent of ultra poor have been pulled out of poverty within the last five years. Reducing poverty only through budgetary mechanism is not possible. For inflationary stress due to price hike has forced the poor to drain the cup of misery to the dreg.
Muhith has really turned out to be a symbol of dream carving out the schemes of change for economic emancipation. We cannot appreciate a naive remark that building a radiant future making Bangladesh a middle income country is a far cry. Dynamic political leadership and committed bureaucracy with missionary zeal have much to be reckoned with.
The process of digitization for automated service in the realm of electronic governance ensures poverty reduction, price stabilization, social justice, participatory democracy and institutional capacity building to combat ‘the adverse effects of climate change’ the government will development of infrastructure hi-tech park, software, ICT incubator and computer village.
The content of budget includes a rosy list of priorities with a seemingly ambitious size of ADP. Is it feasible implementing a hefty ADP allocation amounting to TK80315 cr. for 2014-15 fiscal year? Huge spending much higher than supplementary budget (2013-14) necessitates full blooded revenue mobilization. This a daunting task – a great challenge as such. . Many think that it will be difficult to implement lofty ADP goals. A huge deficit budget, outstripping all the previous deficit budgets, signals the challenge of huge public spending perhaps unknown in the country.
An apparently rosy list of priorities mismatches with a black list of the ghosts. Exorcising these ghosts vitiating policy environment is an insurmountable challenge. Even there is a need to clear jungles in public administration to facilitate implementation. The Chief among them are slow pitched administration, overstuffed bureaucracy, rampant corruption, dysfunctional procurement process, lack of co-ordination, bureaucratic tangles, politicization, cronyism and formalism. In addition there is a crisis of investment friendly environment amidst escalating tension out of toll extortionism, politically influencing tender by force and illegal occupation that account much for governance-shortage
So there is a glimmer of hopes for a change as there are lots of pragmatic notes projecting astounding progress of nation in the years to come. Of course PPP is a healthy for implementation. Yet, all infrastructural development projects under the new paradigm (PPP) are to be efficiently handled.
The government mulls among others expansion of safety net ( TK 15510 cr. allocated), long term energy power goal ( TK.11540cr. allocated), river recovery, checking pollution, and afforestation and climate change(911 crore proposed). It aims at food security through agricultural development with an allocation of 12390 crore. Muhith proposed 9000 crore as subsidies on agriculture inputs like fertilizer, seeds, and irrigation. .
Besides, there are seven year ambitious communication projects well taken up for ‘urgent implementation’ under the PPP budget. They include Dhaka city access control high way, construction of a sky railway around Dhaka city, elevated express railway, Dhaka-Narayanganj-Gazipur elevated express, 4-year gas or coal fired 450 megawatt power stations and construction of deep sea port in Chittagong.
Nothing wrong with dreaming of a bright future even in the midst of fall in investment. Inordinately ambitious budget has ignited a sky high mass expectation for desirable changes in their economic lots. We call it a dream budget difficult to implement. But the targets thus set cannot be achieved as some economists commented. At times there seem to be no reasons to believe that the cherished dream will be realized. Bold venture is most welcome, but then performance of last budget (2013-2014) is not up to expectation, far from targeted revenue income. In fact deficit financing has become a recurring phenomenon. The government looks to banks for loan. Banking sector has to bear the brunt of financing development schemes. Reported doldrums in private investment during last six years coupled with reduction in remittance flows (first time in ten years) of course have caused trepidation of the Finance Minister.
(Dr. Md. Shairul Masreque, Professor, department of Public Administration, Chittagong University)
