Kashmir is the oldest theatre of conflict in South Asia. To this day it remains the bone of contention between Pakistan and India. During the partition of India its Hindu ruler Hari Singh signed an agreement of accession to India in 1947 violating the principle, which was to determine the nationhood of the Muslim majority region and despite the opposition of Pakistan. A UN Commission for India and Pakistan arranged a cease-fire and provided for the future of the state to be decided by a plebiscite. Its Resolutions of August 13, 1948 and June, 5, 1949 accepted by Pakistan and India, prescribed a procedure of withdrawal of troops by both countries to facilitate the holding of the plebiscite free of interference. But both sides refused to withdraw and that rendered an impartial plebiscite impossible.As a result all efforts of the Security Council between 1950 and 1964 proved fruitless. The Indian occupied J&K was annexed by India but remains disputed at the UN, with the plebiscite pending. The quasi-state of Azad Kashmir along with three federally administered agencies constitutes the part of the disputed J&K that is under Pakistan control. The region is regarded by Pakistan as independent though it is protected by and economically and administratively linked to Pakistan.
An uneasy cease-fire line now divide the former princely state. There are 7000,00 Indian troops in Kashmir and about half as many Pakistani soldiers on the other side of the Line of Control. People of Kashmir have lived divided by that line since August 1948. Since 1980s freedom fighters have fought the Indian security forces for independence. Violent clashes and attacks have taken place, stirred up by the activities of separatists and rebel militants. The fight is said to have cost over 100,000 lives.
The struggle for independence started in 1987 when Indian officials rigged election to install the chief minister of their choice, inflaming widespread violence. In 1989 dissent exploded into full-blown independence movement. In July 2015 gunmen dressed in army uniform killed 11 people in Gurdaspur, Punjab. In January 2016, in another incident-armed militants attacked the Indian Air Force base in Pathankot. This was followed by the 18 September attack on an Indian army base in Uri killing 19 soldiers. The attack came amid large-scale violence in J&K that left around 90 people dead in the wake of the killing of Hizbul Mujahiddin leader Burhan Wani on July 8.
Ten days after the Uri attack India claimed, on 29 September, that its army had carried out “surgical strikes” on terror launch pads across the de-facto border in Pakistan occupied Kashmir, Killing several militants. Pakistan dismissed the Indian claim as an “illusion” designed to whip up ” media hype,” and said two of its soldiers were killed in a routine cross border fire. The ruling BJP took credit for the army action but the opposition parties wanted evidence of the narrative. The following day the Pakistan army flew national and international media to the Line of Control to prove that India did not carry out any “surgical strikes” and that India’s claim was a ‘white lie’. Aftermath of the incident has heightened tensions as Pakistan has moved its soldiers to the front and India evacuated villages within 10 km of the border.
There were 5 cease-fire violations in 24 hours in Kashmir’s Poonch and Akhnoor sectors killing one Indian soldier and wounding one seriously. Meanwhile another important development has taken place in Sino-Pak relationship. India’s move in the Security Council to enlist Jaish-e- Mohammad leader, Moulana Azhar, as an international terrorist, has been foiled by the Chinese veto. China has also pledged military assistance to Pakistan if its sovereignty is threatened. Narendra Modi’s invocation of Balochistan has already received a backlash from China. “If India interferes with building of the CPEC,” warned Liu,”it will not be good for bilateral ties.” Pakistan has blamed Indian intelligence agencies for the recent attacks on Chinese workers in the Gwadar port. China believes that the 2004 bomb attack that killed three Chinese engineers at Gwadar port was carried out by a “foreign country that every body knows.”China, adopting the maxim that “my enemy’s enemy is my friend”, clearly benefits from India- Pakistan hostility. India is aware that China’s “all-weather” friendship with Pakistan may result in India eventually fighting a two-front war, which may involve the use of nuclear weapons.
Pakistan has pursued strong relation with China, because it gives the country the feeling of security in relation to India with which China also has some unresolved issues . In 1959 Chinese forces had seized a portion of Ladakh in northern Kashmir and had built a road across the occupied territory to connect Sinkiang with Tibet. China still holds the gain of about 14000 sq. miles of territory in the northern Ladakh area. In March 1963, China and Pakistan signed an agreement defining a border 300 miles long along the northern area of Kashmir under Pakistan control.
Following its “Neighborhood First” policy India has engaged with all its neighbors, except Pakistan. New Delhi is concerned about China’s increasing maritime presence in the Indian Ocean as evidenced by China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarines visiting Colombo and Karachi in 2015.India has concerns that China is seeking to make South Asia part of its greater region. With Pakistan, China is developing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), “a network of roads, railway and pipelines between the long-time allies…[that] will run some 3,000 km(1800 miles” from Kashi (formerly Kashgar ) in western China, via disputed J&K to Gwadar, in far south western Pakistan. CPEC forms part of China’s “One Belt, One Road” strategy to establish trade and economic connections centered on China that follow both the old land-based “Silk Road” and a maritime equivalent.
The total investment figure is pegged at $46 billion. CPEC is strategically vulnerable and politically sensitive as India considers the disputed J&K territory through which it will pass to be an “integral part” of India. So long Pakistan has put its claim on the India- held J&K but India never made the counter-claim on the Pakistan-held “Azad Kashmir”. In the event of war between India and Pakistan, areas of J&K under Pakistan’s administration would be highly vulnerable to Indian interdiction. The “surgical strikes” on 29 September which India claims to have carried out inside ‘Azad Kashmir’ apparently sends the same message to China and Pakistan. Chinese initiative, on the other hand, involves encouraging South Asian nations to develop relations with China partly to limit India’s influence and strategic options. India suffers from an “ugly Indian” image due to a hegemonic attitude. Seemingly, China is doing better in South Asia than India. This is largely because of the greater largesse that China is offering. The obvious trend in South Asia is the Chinese entrenchment throughout the region.
The China-Pakistan connection is the strongest of this trend. Both nations consider each other “all weather friends”. Following its”String of Pearls” strategy to integrate itself throughout the Indian Ocean, China seeks to obtain maritime access in strategic locations including Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. China is offering trade and transport opportunities to Bhutan and Nepal with the railway line from Shigatse to Kathmandu. In Sri Lanka, China has been responsible for financing 70 percent of this nation’s infrastructure projects. In Maldives, China is providing finance to construct the bridge between the capital, Male and the airport. U.S.- China strategic and economic interests also converge in Afghanistan, where U.S. provides security and China is investing.
All these Chinese moves displease India. India may now feel that China is trying to encircle it . To come out of this encirclement there is a major change in India’s strategic outlook. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, India-U.S. interests have steadily converged, with relations improving to the point where both nations enjoy a strategic partnership and an “indispensable relationship”. India is now U.S.’s largest arms customer and with the joint military exchanges U.S. is now India’s leading exercise partner. The India-U.S. relationship is getting stronger and will continue to do so.
[Writer was an MP in Bangladesh’s 7th and 8th parliaments. He is an author, columnist and political analyst. Contact: [email protected]]
