Dr Maleeha Lodhi :
The relatively peaceful presidential election and unexpectedly high voter turnout marks a hopeful beginning to the many transitions Afghanistan has to negotiate this year – political, security and economic. What happens next in the election process and how these transitions proceed will be even more consequential for the country’s future.
A reasonably smooth polling day on April 5 was just the first act of an unfolding political transition that has to play out. Final judgment on the election has to wait until the conclusion of the process. Moreover, a successful political transition involves more than the presidential election even though it is a good foundation to build on.
Comparisons have widely been drawn between the fairly smooth conduct of the April 5 polling and the flawed outcome of the 2009 presidential poll. The conclusion of most observers is that this election has gone off much better than expected. But caution is urged.
On present indications, a run off election seems a near certainty and could take place on May 28. After the counting is over polling staff will take several weeks to look into allegations of ballot fraud, which have been made by all three leading candidates. Once these have been probed, official results will likely be announced on May 14. If no candidate wins more than 50 per cent of the vote, a second round of balloting will follow.
Early preliminary results show Dr. Abdullah Abdullah in the lead with Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai a close second, and Zalmai Rassoul, the man reputed to be President Hamid Karzai’s preferred choice, trailing far behind them. But as the UN’s special envoy Jan Kubis rightly pointed out: “until the final results are announced by the Independent Election Commission, stakeholders should be careful in drawing premature conclusions so as not to create inaccurate expectations”.
Even so, at least one tentative conclusion can be drawn from initial indications that Karzai’s favoured candidate has fared poorly in the election. Although Karzai may have hedged his bets by also maintaining links with the two front-runners, it is more than apparent that former foreign minister Rassoul was his preferred candidate. That being the case, the vote can be construed as a repudiation of Karzai and his policies.
The immediate challenge, however, is for the election result to be broadly accepted as legitimate. If this happens an important first hurdle would be crossed. But a successful political transition has to result from more than a controversy-free presidential election. Also essential is a serious intra-Afghan dialogue that yields political accommodation among the various parties and with the armed opposition, the Taleban, and helps bring an end to the fighting ahead of December 2014.
The Taleban had always refused to talk to the Karzai administration. But with Karzai stepping down and the Taleban’s calculations possibly changing after their failure to disrupt the election, the chances of getting a peace dialogue off the ground may be better under the new dispensation in Kabul.
A peace process is not an urgent priority for the US, which will have its immediate sights set on securing the Bilateral Security Agreement from the new government.
But this should not stop the US from facilitating a peace dialogue, because it is political dynamics that will shape a supporting environment for an orderly security transition in December 2014, when all Nato combat forces will leave Afghanistan.
Critical to Afghanistan’s future will be efforts to avert a violent stalemate from endangering its stability. A violent stalemate can ensue from a situation in which government forces are unable to establish control over the entire country and the Taleban too cannot extend their sway beyond the areas they control at present. With violence continuing in this scenario, this would not only imperil the gains the country has made and its future stability, but the security of the region.
To avert this, it will be necessary to start a serious intra-Afghan dialogue, with support from all the stakeholders including the US, Pakistan and Iran.
Prospects for Afghanistan’s post-2014 stability are also dependent on the fourth transition that lies ahead: forging a regional consensus. China is set this August to host the next meeting of the “Heart of Asia” process, launched three years back to mobilise regional cooperation for security and development in Afghanistan.
By the time this convenes, there will be greater clarity about Afghanistan’s political transition. This should allow for progress to evolve a regional consensus on Afghanistan.
(Dr Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US and the UK)
