UNB, Dhaka :Rice production in Bangladesh will mark a fall by 1.6 percent in 2050 and 5.05 percent in 2100 due to climate change, according to a recent report of the Asian Development Bank (ADB).Citing a study of Bangladesh Agriculture University (BAU), the newly released ADB report titled, ‘Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia’, says the decline in paddy yield due to climate change will bring a negative impact on the country’s real GDP by 0.67 percent in 2050 and 0.93 percent in 2100.Though paddy production is the most dominant productive activity in the country, food security is closely linked to rice security given the high prevalence of poverty.The report warns that a fall in rice production will increase its price, which will then place upward pressure on the overall consumer price index (CPI) of the economy like decline in total exports, rise in the import of rice, and decrease in household real consumption.”This would put additional pressure on the government in maintaining the country’s long-term food security.”Identifying sea level rise and permanent inundation, the vulnerability assessment conducted under this study indicated that 0.9 percent of Bangladesh dry-land is expected to be permanently inundated. Degradation of land is a vital issue as it is a threat to agricultural productivity, job creation, and poverty reduction in general.The fall in production in all sectors in the economy due to the land quantity shock will lead to a fall in real GDP. Quoting the BAU study, the report says the real GDP will fall by 0.73 percent in 2030 and by up to 0.93 percent in 2100.The negative impacts on real GDP would be high because land is a critical factor of production for almost all sectors of the economy. Unless the productivity of land is increased substantially in the coming years, such negative impacts on the economy would persist and undermine potential economic progress in the future.The ADB report cautions that the negative impacts on the economy due to land quantity shock will also be manifested through a rise in CPI and fall in overall exports and imports.The impact of climate change through the reduction in available land (inundation) will put pressure on the stability of the balance of payment of Bangladesh, according to the report.
