Business Desk :
The World Bank has forecasted that Bangladesh’s economy will grow by 3.6% this fiscal year, revising its earlier forecast of 1.6%.
The development lender, in its flagship publication ‘Global Economic Prospects’, also said Bangladesh’s economic growth will be 5.1% in the fiscal year (FY) 2021-22, higher than the earlier growth forecast of 3.4%.
Private consumption is the main engine of growth which is supported by normalising activity, moderate inflation, and rising ready-made garment exports.
While there is uncertainty regarding the stability of private consumption, Bangladesh’s growth is expected to experience a gradual recovery.
“Recoveries in Bangladesh and Pakistan face new headwinds from a recent rise in Covid-19 cases accompanied by rising restrictions to stamp out the new surge,” stated the report.
The report also highlighted the poor performance of vaccine administration in Bangladesh with only a small fraction of people having been vaccinated.
The World Bank’s forecast for Bangladesh’s GDP growth is less than those projected by others.
ADB and IMF projected 6.8% and 5% growth for the country in the current fiscal year.
ADB and IMF’s growth projection for FY22 is 7.2% and 7.5%, which is also higher than that of WB’s growth projection in the next fiscal year.
In the Budget FY22, government’s GDP growth target is 7.2%. The 8th five-year plan also targeted 7.7% GDP growth in FY22.
South Asian economies arebouncing back as economic growth is set to increase by 6.8%this year after contracting an estimated 5.4% in 2020.
But the recovery remains fragile as amid this Covid-19 pandemic, the region is expected to see tens of millions more extreme poor — those living below $1.90per day — by the end of this year and to have more than half of the new global poor created byCovid-19.
The report emphasised the uncertainty of the economic recovery stating, “All regions remain vulnerable to renewed outbreaks of Covid-19, which could feature variant strains of the virus; financial stress amplified by elevated debt levels; deeper-than-expected scarring from the pandemic; and rising social unrest, potentially triggered by rising food price”.
