Staff Reporter :
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected that Bangladesh will have a moderate 6.9 percent growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the current fiscal year, which is lower than the government’s projected 7.2 percent.
The regional lender also forecast that there will also be a 6.9 percent GDP growth in the next fiscal year (2017-’18), which is slightly down from 7.1 percent growth registered in 2015-’16 fiscal year.
The ADB projection came at the ‘Asian Development Outlook 2017’ which was launched simultaneously at its Dhaka office, its headquarters and other Asian countries on Thursday.
“The GDP growth is expected to a moderate to 6.9 percent in 2016-17 fiscal as domestic demand is rising in a slower way and the remittance inflow falling,” the outlook said.
Presenting the ADB outlook, its Principal Country Specialist (Bangladesh) Jyotsana Varma said the GDP growth will slow down with the decline in the agricultural and export growths and the rise in import growth.
She, however, said the outlook is very positive for Bangladesh. “Though the GDP growth to slow down, a 6.9 percent growth is positive and huge compared to other countries.”
According to the outlook, the export growth is expected to slow to 6 percent in the current fiscal declining from 8.9 percent in the 2015-’16 fiscal. The garment export rose by only 4.1 percent in the first 7 months of the current fiscal. But the export growth is expected to rise further to 7 percent in the 2017-’18 fiscal on steady external demands and improvement in the Bangladesh market share, it projected.
It noted that the remittance declined by 17.6 percent in the first half of the current fiscal though overseas jobs for Bangladeshi workers rose by 23.5 percent.
The ADB forecast that remittances will decline by 7 percent in this fiscal year and 4 percent in the next fiscal year as global oil prices start rising. It said inflation is projected to rise to 6.1 percent in the current fiscal, up from 5.9 percent in 2015-’16 fiscal.
It also projected that the inflation is expected to further pick up to 6.3 percent in 2017-’18 fiscal as the global fuel prices start rising and a new value-added tax comes into effect.
The regional lender also forecast that agriculture is expected to slow down further to 2.4 percent growth in 2016-’17 fiscal and 2.3 percent in 2017-’18 fiscal.
Noting that import payment rose by 8.2 percent in the first half of this fiscal year, it projected that imports are expected to grow by 9 percent in this fiscal and 10 percent in the next fiscal.
It said creating productive jobs in manufacturing and modern services is a major policy changes for Bangladesh economy. The ADB expects that political stability will continue to strengthening consumers and investors’ confidence, the ADB projected.
Replying to a question, ADB Staff Consultant Mohammad Zahid Hossain said it is charisma of Bangladesh economy that it continues to register a high growth rate despite the slow rise in export and remittance. “Bangladesh economy attains its internal capacity.”
The domestic demand is driving the growth in the last two-three years,” he said. About Asia, the regional lender forecast a 5.7 percent solid growth for developing Asia in 2017 and 2018, a slight downtick from 2016. ADB Deputy Country Director Cai Li was also present at the press conference.
