With fall of the present West-aligning government led by Volodymyr Zelenskyy just days away, US and its allies are left with few options other than using a tired tool known as economic sanctions.
A dictator like Putin is not answerable to his people yet he has complete control over Russian military and all its wealth. More importantly, such sanctions will have all the effect on Russian people but can inflict little damage to Putin himself.
Russia is a major source of energy for Europe and the rest of the world. In fact, energy exports are what keeps the country alive economically despite having one of the lowest per-capita incomes among developed nations.
The Ukraine conflict has driven up oil prices substantially, the Brent Crude oil index surpassed the economically significant US $100 levels yesterday. LNG prices have also appreciated significantly hoovering over US $30/MMBTU.
From the outset president Joe Biden has made it clear that US won’t engage militarily to protect the sovereignty of Ukraine. The few US military personnel engaged in training the Ukrainian forces have been removed recently.
This public unwillingness of Biden, some believe, may have played a key role in Putin’s risk calculations before he decided to invade Ukraine.
Biden’s logic of taking options off the table during a conflict even if he doesn’t plan to exercise those is quite unfathomable. It gives his opponent an advantage and more options to play with.
Saving Ukraine at this point probably is impossible. Punishing Russia will also be ineffective unless it can cause a regime change in Kremlin.
Imposing sanctions will probably hurt US and its allies more than Putin. Other than his life, Putin has little to lose even if Russia collapses economically. Putin doesn’t seem to care that the Russian stocks and its currency already have crashed.
Imposing extreme sanctions on one of the major global suppliers of fossil fuel-based energy, especially during winter will be suicidal for Biden and potentially may lead to a regime change in Washington!
