The genesis of the meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in Russia on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Ufa lay due to an eight meeting phone call initiated by PM Modi to his counterpart. It was through this call that they decided to meet — the foundations of which had already been laid by PM Sharif when he decided to go to the inauguration ceremony of Modi last year.
The greatest foreign policy difference between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his predecessor Manmohan Singh has been Pakistan. PM Singh believed in dialogue with Pakistan at almost any cost. Modi’s views are more akin to those of ex-PM PV Narasimha Rao: Dealing with Pakistan was high risk, low return and not worth the investment, yet you cannot ignore or refuse it. Simply put, its a hard reality. However, Modi of late recognised that he could not take a hardline stance on Pakistan without lines of communication to Islamabad — this would let Pakistan talk up the “nuclear flashpoint” claim and encourage international pressure to build up.
Relations between the two neighbours had nosedived after the Modi government drew a new redline in August last year when it abruptly called off foreign secretary-level talks after the Pakistani High Commissioner met with Kashmiri separatists. Pakistan’s interference in India’s ‘internal affairs was unacceptable’, was the message that had been squarely delivered then. The decision surprised many because it came within two months of Sharif attending Modi’s swearing-in.
But India wanted to bury the 26/11 tainted composite dialogue and make the agenda about terror. So Modi began to embed all official meetings with Pakistan within the aegis of SAARC. His endless neighbourhood tours, overtures to China, and back-to-back summits with Barack Obama put Pakistan in a rather disadvantaged state. On the other hand, Pakistan in its turn squarely pointed fingers to R & W of India for creating trouble inside Pakistan. Moreover, the USA still needs Pakistan to implement its policy in Afghanistan. That is Pakistan may be weak but not weightless geo-physically. Most importantly, it is a nuclear power.
The joint statement of the countries issued after the latest meeting is noticeable for its lack of an explicit mention of Kashmir and that three-quarters of its text is terror related. It replaces the composite dialogue with a new line-up of bilateral meetings between security heads which will provide an opportunity to stabilise the situation along the international border and the LoC. And it sets tests for Pakistan like finding ways of delivering on the voice samples of Lakhvi and the other 26/11 accused. The anti-terror court, the defense lawyers of the accused — and the Pakistani Army and ISI who provide open patronage to Lakhvi — have been blocking the samples for years.
So while India has got whatever it wanted for Pakistan is a different matter — the joint statement makes no mention of Kashmir and this may create trouble for Sharif at home. Experts opine that the ultimate result of the new initiative shall largely depend on the ability of the Indian and Pakistani civil authorities to exercise control over their two strong, but always rival power centres; R &W and ISI.
One thing is clear that both Pakistan and India need a stable relationship between themselves and in that sense both the leaders approached their relations pragmatically. The Prime Minister of India Mr Modi is supposed to give strong leadership for the country but has not demonstrated any such arrogance while talking to the Prime Minister of Pakistan Mr Sharif. Mr Modi’s reluctance to raise the most sensitive Kashmir issue is significant in the sense that he probably treats it as settled as far as India is concerned.
